Climate Change and Security Risks: What to Know

Climate change is changing our world in many ways, from nature to human activities. The National Intelligence Council says it will make risks to U.S. national security worse. This is because of the physical effects and tensions over how to deal with it¹. The U.S. Defense Department sees climate change as a “threat multiplier.” It makes existing environmental and security problems worse². This article will look at how climate change threatens national security directly and indirectly.

Key Takeaways

• Many federal agencies see climate change as a big threat to national security.
• Climate change is already affecting security and emergency plans with things like more Arctic shipping and extreme weather.
• Places that are already struggling are more likely to face big problems because of climate change.
• The military is now planning for climate change to handle security risks.
• Climate change can lead to humanitarian crises around the world, putting a strain on military resources.

Introduction to Climate Change and Security Risks

In recent years, the climate change security linkages have become more important. As climate change speeds up, it makes existing social, economic, and environmental problems worse. This can lead to more insecurity at local and international levels. Climate-security nexus concerns include issues with food, water, and energy, more fights over natural resources, loss of jobs, climate disasters, and people moving because of climate change³.

Even though more people know about the link between climate change impacts on national security, there aren’t many programs that tackle these issues together⁴.

The Growing Recognition of Climate Change as a Security Threat

The U.S. intelligence community has warned about climate change as a global threat for years³. Many military experts see climate change as a big national security issue³. Now, many government and private groups agree that climate change and security risks are closely linked³.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Security at Various Levels

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (August 2021) says the world faces huge risks from climate change, affecting every area⁴. Droughts led to the Syrian civil war in 2011³. Rising seas could cause big refugee crises in Southeast Asia³. Melting sea ice in the Arctic might lead to new tensions among countries at the top of the world³.

Experts call climate change a “threat multiplier” that makes things unstable and can cause conflict. It can make people fight over resources and increase ethnic tensions³. The U.S. Intelligence Community says environmental damage and climate change will make people fight over resources and cause economic and social problems³.

Extreme weather events from sea-level rise will hit areas like South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Western Hemisphere hard³. Climate change making water and food scarce is raising the chance of conflict in places like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, and Jordan³.

Most special missions by the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs are in very climate-vulnerable countries⁴. The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia is the first UN mission to focus on climate-related security risks⁴.

“Climate change is making it hard for the military to train and test, with more events being canceled or delayed, especially in the U.S. Southeast and Southwest.”³

The Climate Security Mechanism (CSM) helps the UN deal with climate-related security risks better⁴. The UN Community of Practice on Climate Security has over 500 people from 25 UN groups sharing information and creating new knowledge⁴.

Direct Threats of Climate Change to National Security

Climate change is a big threat to national security. It affects military bases and supply lines⁵⁶. Rising temperatures and high carbon dioxide levels are causing problems for the U.S. military⁵.

Impact on Military Infrastructure and Supply Chains

Many military bases are near the coast and face threats from sea-level rise and extreme weather⁶. These threats damage military bases, like Fort Irwin in California, and disrupt operations⁶. Climate disasters also make it hard to get the supplies the military needs⁶.

Increased Demand for Military Resources in Disaster Relief

Natural disasters are happening more often, making the military a key player in relief efforts⁶⁷. They are handling more emergencies, from wildfires to floods, which strains their resources⁷. This shows how big a challenge climate change is for national security⁷.

“Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in volatile regions of the world.”⁶

Climate change is a big problem for military bases and supply lines. It also means more work for disaster relief. The U.S. needs to tackle these security risks from climate change⁶⁷. By getting ready for these threats, the military can stay strong and protect national security⁶⁵⁷.

Indirect Threats Posed by Climate Change

Climate change’s indirect threats are even bigger worries for global security⁸. It makes existing security risks worse by affecting things like water, food, and energy⁸. When these key resources get scarce, it can cause people to move, lead to unrest, and even make states fail⁸.

Climate-Induced Migration and Civil Unrest

Climate change could lead to huge human migrations⁹. The World Bank says 143 million people might move due to climate change in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America⁹. These migrants could cause tensions in new places, leading to more poverty, inequality, and violence⁸. This could change the balance of power in regions or cause states to fail, possibly needing U.S. military help to calm things down⁸.

Climate change affects food, water, health, and basic services, causing unrest and instability⁸. For instance, less water, food, and energy can lead to protests and conflicts as people fight for their needs⁸. These issues can spread, threatening security at both local and global levels⁸.

Coastal areas and small island nations face big risks from climate change⁸. Sea level rise and extreme weather can destroy economic centers, infrastructure, and military bases, threatening their survival⁸. This can cause migration and instability that spreads across borders, making security worse⁸.

Climate change, resource shortages, and migration show we need a strong plan to tackle these risks⁸. Leaders and military planners must work together to find ways to lessen climate change’s effects on global security⁸⁹¹⁰.

Climate Change and Security Risks: What to Know

Climate change is a big threat to national security. The U.S. Defense Department sees it as a “threat multiplier” that makes things worse¹¹. As climate change gets worse, so does the need for defense operations, making them more expensive¹¹. It also leads to political instability, fights over resources, and tensions between countries, affecting U.S. security¹¹.

Climate change affects security in many ways. Over 20 million people move because of climate change each year, due to extreme weather and rising sea levels¹¹. By 2030, 68 to 135 million people could be pushed into poverty because of climate change¹¹. Women and girls face more security risks, like sexual violence, because of climate change¹¹.

Climate change also harms military bases and supply chains. For example, the Canadian Armed Forces fought fires for over 100 days in 2023 because of climate change¹². The U.S. National Guard has been deployed over 70 times in two years to deal with climate issues¹². This is why the world is working together, like NATO’s plan to tackle climate change’s effects on security¹².

We need a broad approach to deal with climate and security issues. This includes understanding how the military responds to climate hazards, following NATO’s plan, and working on sustainable energy¹². With climate change threatening global peace, we must act fast and work together to lessen its effects¹³.

“Climate change is considered one of the greatest risks for peace and security in the 21st century.”¹³

The Great Green Wall in Africa’s Sahel aims to fix 100 million hectares of land, save 250 million tonnes of carbon, and create 10 million jobs by 2030¹¹. This shows how we’re trying to tackle climate and security issues together.

Dealing with climate change’s effects on security is key for keeping the world safe and peaceful¹³¹¹¹².

Conflicts Surrounding Decarbonization Efforts

The world is racing to fight climate change and move to a low-carbon economy. But, there are growing disagreements about who should pay and how¹⁴. Poor countries want rich nations to help fund their climate projects more¹⁵. At the same time, countries that depend on fossil fuels are worried about their economies as the energy world changes.

Tensions over Responsibility and Financing

There are big debates over who should take the lead in fighting climate change¹⁵. Developing countries say richer nations should give more money for climate action¹⁵. This has led to talks and deals, as the promised $100 billion a year for climate aid is still missing¹⁶.

Impacts on the Fossil Fuel Economy

Switching to cleaner energy is a big worry for countries that have always used fossil fuels¹⁶. Some countries are slowing down on reducing carbon emissions because they fear it could hurt their economies and people¹⁶. Finding a way to balance climate change decarbonization conflicts with economic needs is key for a fair transition.

“The impacts of climate change have implications on a global scale and require coordinated collective action.”¹⁶

Fixing the climate change decarbonization conflicts needs a careful and team effort¹⁶. Everyone must work together to find fair solutions¹⁶. By tackling these big challenges, we can move towards a future that’s sustainable and low on carbon¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶.

Competition for Critical Resources in the Clean Energy Transition

The world is racing to fight climate change, and the need for key minerals for clean energy is growing fast. Getting these minerals is becoming a big challenge, affecting global power and the success of renewable energy¹⁷.

Switching to clean energy needs a lot of minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Experts say we might need six times more of these minerals by 2040 to hit net-zero emissions¹⁸. This is because electric cars, batteries, and renewable energy use these minerals a lot.

Most of these minerals come from a few countries, especially China, which worries about supply chain issues and price changes¹⁹. This has made governments and industries fight for these minerals, leading to more tensions and even conflict risks.

To deal with this, governments are taking steps. The U.S. has passed laws to boost clean energy, and China plans to stop making internal combustion engine cars by 2035¹⁹. Groups like the Mineral Security Partnership are also working together for sustainable mining and recycling of these minerals.

The fight for these minerals will get tougher as we move to clean energy. It could affect global security and stability. We need a plan that deals with both reducing carbon and the challenges of getting these minerals¹⁷.

“Without swift action on climate change, over 140 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia will be forced to migrate within national borders by 2050.”¹⁷

Dealing with climate change’s security issues, the fight for minerals in clean energy is a big worry. We need everyone to work together for a fair and sustainable way to reduce carbon and handle the challenges of getting these minerals.

The Melting Arctic and Emerging Geopolitical Tensions

The Arctic region is now a key focus in global politics due to climate change. The melting ice is opening up the Northwest Passage, a key shipping route. This is causing nations to compete for access and the region’s resources²⁰²¹.

The Opening of the Northwest Passage

As Arctic ice melts, the Northwest Passage is becoming a viable shipping route²¹. By 2035, some areas might be ice-free in summer, making shipping faster²¹. This has sparked a race among nations to control the region’s waters and resources.

Competition for Arctic Resources and Territorial Claims

Countries are racing for the Arctic’s oil, gas, and minerals as it becomes more accessible²⁰. Without a global shift to clean energy, the Arctic could be ice-free, filled with ships and drilling rigs²⁰. This has raised tensions, with Russia and China making their moves in the region.

Russia is upgrading its military bases and claiming the Northern Sea Route as its own²¹. Canada says the Northwest Passage is its waters, but the U.S. and Europe disagree, seeing it as an international strait²¹. These disputes could lead to conflicts in the Arctic.

The Biden administration sees national security as crucial in the Arctic, due to Russia’s military and China’s growing influence²¹. The U.S. is watching Russia and China closely, especially after their military exercises near Alaska²¹.

The Arctic’s complex politics are also about protecting the environment and balancing commercial interests²⁰²¹²². As the competition grows, the need for international cooperation to manage the Arctic’s changes is clear²⁰²¹²².

“The Arctic is the bellwether for global climate change, and what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic. The dramatic changes we’re seeing in the region have profound implications for the rest of the world.”
– Sherri Goodman, Former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security

²⁰²¹²²

Efforts to Assess and Address Climate-Related Security Risks

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) leads the world in linking climate change with security. In 2009, it teamed up with groups like the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations University (UNU) to study climate change’s effects on the Sahel region²³.

UNEP’s Work on Climate Change and Security

UNEP helps countries prepare for climate-related security risks through assessments and training²⁴. It uses tools like the Strata data platform to spot and track environmental and climate issues that could lead to security threats²⁴.

National and International Initiatives

The Biden-Harris Administration sees fighting the climate crisis as key to national and foreign policy²³. They’ve launched the National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change and the Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis²³. The Department of Homeland Security also has a plan to adapt to climate risks²³.

The European Union and UNEP teamed up in 2017 to tackle climate change and security²⁴. Their five-year project helped countries and partners spot and deal with security risks from climate change²⁴. The project worked in Nepal and Sudan, offering tools for adapting to climate change and building sustainable lives²⁴.

The OSCE and adelphi are working on a project to lower climate change security risks in South-Eastern Europe and other regions²⁵. They aim to increase awareness, build skills, and share knowledge to tackle these risks²⁵.

These efforts show how climate change is seen as a big security threat. They highlight global actions to understand, tackle, and build resilience against climate-related security risks²³. Scientists say human actions cause climate change and its severe effects on life and security²³. The Biden Administration has released studies on climate and security risks to guide decisions with science²³.

“Climate change is reshaping the security landscape, with far-reaching implications for U.S. interests and strategic priorities. Addressing the climate crisis must be a core element of U.S. national security and foreign policy.”

– The Biden-Harris Administration

Preparing for Climate-Related Security Challenges

Climate change is a big threat to national security. To fight this, we’re boosting our resilience and adapting to the changes. This means upgrading our infrastructure, making our military gear and tactics better for the new climate, and getting better at handling disasters²⁶.

Enhancing Resilience and Adaptation Measures

NATO has been leading the fight against environmental security since the 1960s. They started the Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society in 1969 to deal with pollution, healthcare, and waste disposal²⁶. Over time, NATO’s efforts grew, merging the Science Committee with the CCMS in 2006. Now, the Science for Peace and Security Programme tackles many security issues, including environmental security and natural disaster prevention²⁶.

Recently, NATO has made big moves to include climate change in its plans. In 2021, they adopted a Climate Change and Security Action Plan. The 2022 NATO Strategic Concept sees climate change as a major security threat. They’re setting up a NATO Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Security in Montreal, Canada²⁶.

Strengthening International Cooperation and Governance

We also need to work together on a global scale to tackle climate-related security risks. This means sharing data, mixing climate and security in policy, and making plans to build resilience against climate change²⁶.

NATO has been working with other countries on environmental security since the 1990s. They’re a top priority for partners, who want NATO’s help in these efforts²⁶. NATO’s Trust Funds started in 2000 to help countries demilitarize and build capacity, following high environmental standards²⁶. The Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre has been helping with disaster response since the late 1990s²⁶.

The United States is also teaming up with countries like Madagascar, Palau, Peru, and Ecuador to improve climate resilience²⁷. These partnerships aim to strengthen security, boost awareness, and get better at handling climate disasters²⁷.

The United Nations is also key in linking climate change to security. The Security Council first looked at these links in 2007, and in 2017, they passed a resolution on climate-related risks in the Lake Chad basin²⁸. The UNDP has worked on hundreds of projects in over 140 countries to address climate-security issues. A recent Security Council debate brought together over 70 Member States²⁸.

Dealing with climate-related security challenges needs a big, joined-up effort. This means working together, using data in policy, and focusing on building resilience. As climate change keeps changing, we must all work together to keep the world safe and stable²⁶²⁷²⁸.

“Climate change is a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing tensions and instability. Addressing its security implications requires a coordinated global effort.” – Lindsay Getschel, UN Youth Representative²⁸

Conclusion

Climate change is a big threat to national security, with many direct and indirect effects²⁹. A rise in sea level by just half a meter could threaten the survival of many Pacific Island nations²⁹. This could lead to fights over resources and even war²⁹. Climate change affects the core of security issues²⁹.

The economic damage from climate change could seriously harm America’s security, as warned in the 2006 Stern Review²⁹. Climate change is now seen as a major security concern²⁹.

³⁰ The CNA Corporation’s Military Advisory Board, with 11 retired U.S. generals and admirals, sees climate change as a big threat to America’s security³⁰. They found four key points on climate change and security, and suggested five ways to tackle it³⁰. The UN Security Council talked about climate change and its effects on security for the first time in April³⁰. The world’s population is expected to hit 9.5 billion by 2050, with most growth in Asia and Africa³⁰.

³¹ The UN’s IPCC says global warming will cause more heat, rain, sea rise, extreme weather, and changes in disease and seasons³¹. From 1990 to 1999, 188 million people faced natural disasters each year, six times more than those affected by war³¹. A study suggests global warming may cause up to 160,000 deaths a year from diseases and hunger, with this number possibly doubling by 2020³¹. The UN wants nations to agree on cutting emissions and helping vulnerable countries adapt, but doubts exist about how well this will address climate change’s security risks³¹.

Source Links

1. DoD Releases Report on Security Implications of Climate Change
2. National Security and Climate Change: What Do We Need to Know?
3. A brief introduction to climate change and national security » Yale Climate Connections
4. Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security
5. GPG3474_CoverFinal.indd
6. Climate Change Impacts on National Security
7. PDF
8. Is climate change a security risk?
9. Why Climate Change Is a National Security Risk
10. Climate change and security risks
11. Five ways the climate crisis impacts human security | United Nations
12. The Center for Climate & Security
13. Climate Change, Peace and Security: Understanding Climate-Related Security Risks Through an Integrated Lens
14. With Climate Crisis Generating Growing Threats to Global Peace, Security Council Must Ramp Up Efforts, Lessen Risk of Conflicts, Speakers Stress in Open Debate
15. Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures
16. Secretary-General’s remarks to the Security Council – on addressing climate-related security risks to international peace and security through mitigation and resilience building [bilingual as delivered, scroll down for all-english]
17. Massive Displacement, Greater Competition for Scarce Resources Cited as Major Risks in Security Council Debate on Climate-Related Threats
18. Executive summary – The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions – Analysis – IEA
19. The Changing Geopolitics of Critical Minerals and the Future of the Clean Energy Transition
20. PDF
21. Melting Arctic to Open Up New Trade Routes and Geopolitical Flashpoints
22. The geopolitics of a changing Arctic
23. Fact Sheet: Prioritizing Climate in Foreign Policy and National Security | The White House
24. Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks
25. Strengthening Responses to Security Risks from Climate Change in South-Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia
26. Environment, climate change and security
27. Strengthening Climate Security Through Enhanced Security Sector Governance – United States Department of State
28. Climate change recognized as ‘threat multiplier’, UN Security Council debates its impact on peace
29. The Greatest Threat To Global Security: Climate Change Is Not Merely An Environmental Problem | United Nations
30. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
31. Microsoft Word – Purvis Busby.doc

Michele Costanza

See Full Bio